Socioecology and global models

Awareness of the ecological imperative is the need for urgent action to save the Habitat of mankind — occurred in the West in the early 1970s. In this regard, two particularly important developments in 1972, 2005: the first International Conference on environment in Stockholm under the auspices of the UN and the book American scientist d. 's and co-authors "limits to growth".
Due to the depletion of mineral raw material resources, with the "population explosion" and other global processes, the need for global modeling was realized before. However, the emergence of socio-ecological component, turning it into a dominant line global models happened in the early 70s and was due to the exponential growth of pressure on the environment, its state of crisis.
The emergence of the D. Meadows "Limits to Growth" is directly related to the activities of international organizations nauchnoprognosticheskoy "Club of Rome", which arose in 1968 This is a very unusual association ("neorganizatsii organization," according to one of the founders of the club), created and funded by large companies ("Fiat", "Volkswagen", and others.) unusual organization and that it contains all the leading countries of the world and culture ("transcultural"). Club makes orders for the development of certain global issues group of scientists who then present their findings in the form of "the Club of Rome report" and so on. D.
It is with this subtitle and published in 1972 the book D. Meadows et al, "The Limits to Growth" - the first global model, where the basic idea was forecast ecological state of our planet. The logic of the book is quite simple: the world's population is growing rapidly (at a time when the annual growth rate approaching 1.9%, rightly said about the "population explosion"), respectively, exponentially increasing the production of food and exhausted land, growing industrial production and running out of mineral resources . Rapidly progressing pollution, which lead in the first decade of the XXI century. to a series of catastrophes. Will ... if you do not stop the uncontrolled growth of population, industrial and agricultural production.
In this model were first determined the physical limits to growth:

  • The total area of potential arable land - 3.2 billion hectares (twice as many as in 1970);
  • Maximum yield three times higher than the world average of 1970 .;
  • Common stocks available renewable resources 250 times more than in 1970 .;
  • Absorption of pollutants in the biosphere is 25 times higher than in natural ecosystems 1970

The volume of non-renewable resources and the total pollution is determined with the ecological state of the global system, and the growth of population, industry and agriculture - the pressure on the environment, anthropogenic and technogenic load. Population growth and the production mutually accelerate each other, give it exponential, unbalance the entire global system.
Model D. Meadows has been criticized for its globality (neglecting the very different development trends in selected countries), with the neo-Malthusian nature of its conclusions ("stop the growth of the population"), for ignoring the feedback (the reaction of social systems threatening trends, and so on. D.).
In response to this criticism was the second global model "Club of Rome" - "Humanity at a Crossroads" Mesarovic M. and E. Pestel (1974). The basic idea of it was the same as that of D. Meadows - "urgently agree on a short-term sacrifices to ensure the long-term benefits." The authors of the second model took into account the criticism of the "excessive globality" of the first model and viewed the world by major regions - the global system of interconnected parts of a whole. Such regions, they identified 10 (North America, including the United States, Canada and Mexico, Latin America, Western Europe, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, tropical Africa, South and Southeast Asia, China and the socialist countries of Asia, Japan, Oceania and South Africa).
This division takes into account fizikogeografichesky factor and a typology of countries according to the criterion of formational and developmental level (clear distinction between "three worlds", the selection of two groups of the then socialist countries and allowed to give quite a realistic picture of the modern world, to show different trends in the development of large regions and their specific problems).
Instead of "zero growth" (by D. Meadows) proposed the concept of organic growth. Inorganic growth - the author points out - so when all the elements of the system are developed independently, leading to skyrocketing problems. It is this type of growth is typical for the current development of mankind. Organic growth as proposed by M. and E. Pestel Mesarovic - coordinated development of different parts of the system, management of the global system. In this case, we have in mind and "horizontal coordination" between the regions of the Earth, and significant changes in the system of values ??- the emphasis on qualitative rather than quantitative growth.
Outside the "Club of Rome" working group of UN experts under the guidance of renowned American economist Basil
Leontiev, who created the model of the "Future of the World Economy" (1979). If the first two models were characterized by predictive approach, the model Leontiev - normative - the use of standards, public priorities, the creation of hypotheses of the individual subsystems. The model is based Leontiev made ??various modifications of the interbranch balance of national, macroregional, interregional. 15 regions taken into account the interaction of 45 different sectors of the economy, 8 types of pollution, and 5 types of cleaning activities. Were calculated various options for the development of the world economy, in particular the need to reduce the gap between North and South. And since the only way for this reduction is the industrialization of the "third world", hence the load on the environment will increase and there, and hence globally. Therefore, the authors calculated the necessary share of GDP, which should be sent to overcome the ecological crisis. They should not be less than 1.5-2.5% of GDP, and for countries with a strongly disturbed ecosystems - up to 4-5%. It is absolutely clear that the regulatory approach gave rather theoretical conclusion than real, especially for the "Third World."
In 1980, the United States on behalf of the Government was prepared book "The World in 2000", in the creation of which was attended by more than 300 major American scientists. The authors have chosen to in-depth "regionalization" model, focusing on the place the United States, as well as the problems of developing countries, which in 2000 will live 78-80% of the population.
American model from the first alarmist distinguishes optimistic assessment of the food situation in the world, mineralnoresursnoy its security in a real production growth of 3% per year on the main types of raw materials. Allocated to it, and particularly "threatened" areas and zones of the planet: the country in the advanced processes of desertification (Sahelian zone), regions with vanishing forests, and so on. D.
Among the works problemnoprognoznyh applies published in 1990 in the form of a progress report of "Club of Rome" "The First Global Revolution" by A. King and B. Schneider - English and French futurists. The authors identify four critical current at the threshold of the XXI century. problems: demographic, environmental, food and energy.
Inside the environmental problems they are designated the most dangerous areas: penetration into the environment of toxic substances (chemicals, radioactive waste, DCT); creating acidic conditions in lakes and deforestation; pollution of the upper atmosphere (Freon); risk of the greenhouse effect.
Curious pessimistic authors features of a market economy in the solution of environmental problems: "The market is poorly adapted to the actions that have forward-looking, affecting the interests of future generations, and involving the use of resources under public ownership." The authors made ??specific suggestions: organize special tips for energy efficiency at the national level; create the UN Security Council on the Environment, for the safety of the Earth is no longer limited to the prevention of nuclear war; meet the "round table" on the global development; to establish national centers for the development of "clean" technologies; to prepare a global project on alternative energy under the auspices of the UN, and so on. d.
The latest models of global development work A. King and B. Schneider stands out the most concrete and meaningful. Not by chance that some of their proposals to strengthen global approach to the development of the world are already being implemented (as evidenced by the proceedings of the International Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, 1992).
There is no need to recount the content of all models of global development with socio-ecological issues. Mention once again about one of the latest models - the work of D. Meadows "New frontiers of growth" (1992). The logic D. Meadows et al here is this: "The economy and the environment, we consider as a single system," and further: "Population and industrial capital are the principal forces in industrializiruemyh regions of the Earth. Three other sectors with growth trends - food production, use of resources and environmental pollution - is structurally unable to reproduce itself. They are driven by population growth and industrial capital. "
Formula global development by D. Meadows is as follows:
where - the load on the environment; P - population; And - well-being; T - technology.
First and second terms of the formula are clear without explanation, while welfare is measured by per capita consumption, and technology - the damage produced by a particular technology per unit of output. In this formula, is equally important for each of its members. Each part of the international community can contribute to the improvement of the environment: South - the decrease in the birth rate (P), the West - a reasonable reduction in consumption (A), East - technological improvements.
If in the first book D. Meadows urged to stop the growth, in the second he stepped on the concept of "transition boundaries of growth" that would be the beginning of the uncontrolled and already irreversible development. The author, regardless of other researchers came to the widely popular in the world today the concept of environmental sustainability (which vigorously promotes the International Commission on Environment and Development, under the leadership of the Prime Minister of Norway Mr. X. Brundtland).
Will the world to develop this optimistic scenario - a question that has no answer. However, one thing is clear - the paradigm of ecological development is the rejection of lifestyle most developed countries of the West and spread it all over the world is physically impossible. Necessary to develop an alternative way of life, the concept of reasonable self-restraint. In this, perhaps, is the main point of recent global models.